🏡 Is the Housing Market Going to Crash? Here’s What’s Really Happening
If you’ve turned on the news or scrolled through social media lately, you’ve probably seen some scary housing headlines. Rising prices, higher interest rates, and affordability concerns — it’s enough to make anyone wonder: “Are we headed for another housing crash?”
The truth? The data tells a very different story.
Let’s break down what’s really happening in the market right now — especially here in the greater Houston area.
💪 Homeowners Are in a Much Stronger Position Than Before
Unlike the housing bubble of 2008, today’s market is built on solid financial ground.
Here’s why:
Lending standards are much tighter — buyers today must actually qualify for a loan.
Most homeowners have significant equity, thanks to strong price growth over the past few years.
The majority of homeowners have ultra-low mortgage rates, meaning they aren’t rushing to sell unless they have to.
That stability keeps the market healthy — and it’s one of the biggest reasons experts aren’t forecasting a crash.
📊 What the Experts Are Actually Predicting
When it comes to understanding where home prices are headed, it’s best to look at the data — not the headlines.
Every quarter, Fannie Mae releases its Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES), which gathers insights from more than 100 of the nation’s top housing market economists and industry professionals. In the most recent report, the consensus is clear: home prices are projected to keep rising nationally through at least 2029.
Each year’s projection shows continued growth — not decline. The only real difference is how fast prices are expected to appreciate from one year to the next.
To put it another way:
Every forecast points to gains.
None of them show a drop in home values.
When those same projections are broken down into three outlooks — the average, the most optimistic, and the most cautious — the story stays the same:
🟢 Average forecast: Home prices expected to increase about 15% by the end of 2029.
💪 Optimistic forecast: Some experts predict growth closer to 26% over that same period.
⚖️ Even the most cautious outlook: Still calls for nearly a 5% increase in prices.
Here’s the takeaway:
Not a single major forecasting group is predicting a housing crash — or even a dip — over the next five years.
So while appreciation may slow compared to the record-breaking gains of the pandemic years, the overall direction of the market remains steady and strong.
🏠 Inventory Is Still Below Normal Levels
While inventory has slowly increased, we’re still far from having an oversupply of homes.
In fact, many neighborhoods across Houston — from Kingwood and The Woodlands to Cypress and Conroe — still face tight inventory.
A true market crash requires an excess of available homes and not enough buyers. That’s just not the case right now. Demand continues to outpace supply, especially for move-in-ready homes in desirable suburbs.
📈 Demand for Housing Isn’t Going Anywhere
The largest generation of buyers — Millennials — is in full homebuying mode, and Gen Z is close behind. Combine that with ongoing relocation trends to Texas (especially from high-cost areas like California and New York), and it’s easy to see why Houston remains a relocation hotspot.
Even with higher rates, people are still buying — they’re just being more thoughtful about when and where.
🤔 What This Means for You
Whether you’re thinking about buying or selling, this more balanced market can actually work in your favor.
Buyers have a bit more negotiating power and time to make decisions.
Sellers still benefit from strong equity and steady demand, especially when homes are priced strategically.
If you’re planning your next move, focus on long-term value — not short-term headlines.
Bottom Line
No, the housing market isn’t crashing. It’s normalizing.
We’re shifting from the wild ride of 2020–2022 into a healthier, more sustainable pace — and that’s a good thing for everyone.
If you’d like a personalized look at how these trends are playing out in your neighborhood, I’d love to help. Let’s chat about your goals and come up with a strategy that works for you.
📞 Call/Text: 310-293-1677
📍 Making Houston Home | eXp Realty
Disclaimer: The information provided in this blog post is based on the latest available data at the time of writing, which is subject to change. It is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial or investment advice.